The Analysis of Large Fire Incidence in Turkey
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53555/ans.v2i6.93Keywords:
Forest fires,, large fires,, number of fires, , burned area,, Markov chainsAbstract
The average of 21902 hectares area has been burned in 1198 fires annually from 1937 to 2009 in Turkey. Fires constitute the biggest risk for the forests in Turkey. Despite the all kinds of technological opportunities and equipment, under the effect of climate changes and various social factors, large fires burning large areas still happen. In short-term, it is predicted that, under the effect of global climate change, forest fires problem will grow. This study compares the number of fires and the land burned in fires larger than 300 ha between 1973 and 2009. In addition, estimations are made by using Markov method in order to predict the possibility and size of large fires in the next years. The results indicate that, especially in the firesensitiveforests in the southern and western regions of Turkey, there is a big risk in terms of forest fire.
Downloads
References
Arno, S. F. and Allison-Bunnell, S. Flames in our forest: disaster or renewal?. Island Press.227p. (2002).
Bahadır, M.andOzdemir, M.A.:Trabzon ve Rize’de Yağışın Mevsimsel DeğisimlerininMarginal ve Matrix Yöntemleriile Belirlenmesive Trend Analizleri. TheJournal of International SocialResearch. cilt: 4 sayı: 17(2011).
Başaran, M.A.and Sarıbaşak, H.: Serik-TaşağılOrman Yangını Durum Tespit Raporu. GDF (2008).
Can, C.E., Ergun, G.andGokceoglu, C.:BilecikÇevresinde Deprem Tehlikesinin Saklı Markov Modeli ile Tahmini.2. Türkiye deprem mühendisliği ve sismoloji konferansı 25-27 Eylül 2013 –MKÜ–Hatay (2013).
Canton-Thompson, J., Gebert, K.M., Thompson, B., Jones, G., Calkin, D.andDonovan, G.:ExternalHuman Factors in Incident Management Team DecisionMakingandTheirEffect on Large Fire SuppressionExpenditures,Journal of Forestry, 416-424 page(2008).
Chandler, C., Cheney, P., Thomas, P., Trabaud, L., andWilliams, D. Fire in forestry. Volume 1. Forest fire behavior and effects. Volume 2. Forest fire management and organization. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (1983).
Çanakçıoğlu, H.:Orman Koruma, Üniversite Yayın No:3624, Fakülte Yayın No:41.1, ISBN 975-404-199-7, İstanbul(1993).
Ertugrul, M.and Varol, T. The relationship between fire number and burned area in Antalya, Izmir and Muğla regions in Turkey.Journal of Environmental Biology,36(2) (2015).
Flannigan, M. D., Amiro, B. D., Logan, K. A., Stocks, B. J., andWotton, B. M. Forest fires and climate change in the 21st century.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change,11(4), 847-859 (2006).
GDF-1:2009 yılı Yangın Eylem Planı, Ankara, Turkey(2010),
Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., andFlannigan, M. D. Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(18), (2004).
Kantarcı, D., 2009. Orman Mühendisliği Dergisi Yıl 46, sayı 1, 2, 3 (Ocak, Şubat, Mart)2009 ISSN 1 301-3572 (33-37)
Kasischke,E.S., Williams, D. andBarry D. Analysis Of The Patterns Of LargeFiresInTheBorealForestRegion Of Alaska. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 11Issue 2, p131, 14p.(2002).
Koçak, K.andSen, Z. Kurakve Yağışlı Gün Oluşumlarının MarkovZinciri Yaklaşımı İle Uygulamalı İncelenmesi. Tr. J. of EngineeringandEnvironmentalScience22:479 -487 (1997).
Lloret, F., Calvo, E., Pons, X., andDíaz-Delgado, R. Wildfires and landscape patterns in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula.Landscape Ecology, 17(8), 745-759 (2002).
Mendes, J., Cortes Bermudez, P. Z., Pereira, J., Turkman, F. K.andVasconcelos, P. M.:Spatial Extremes OfWildfire Sizes: Bayesian Hierarchical Models For Extremes. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 17(1):1–28 (2010).
Neyişçi, T.Kızılçam orman ekosistemlerinde denetimli yakmanın toprak kimyasal özellikleri ve fidan gelişimi üzerine etkileri. OrmancılıkAraştırma Enstitüsü Müdürlüğü(1989).
Omi, P.N. Forest Fires: A Reference Handbook. Contemporary world issues, ABC-CLIO, 347p. (2005).
Ozel, G. andSolmaz, A.Turkiye'deDeprem Tekrarlanma Zamanının Tahmini VeNeotektonik Bölgelere Göre Depremselliğinin MarkovZinciri İle İncelenmesi. ÇankayaUni.J. of ScienceandEngineering, Volume 9, 2: 125-138(2012).
Pausas, J. G., andVallejo, V. R. The role of fire in European Mediterranean ecosystems. InRemote sensing of large wildfires(pp. 3-16). Springer Berlin Heidelberg, (1999).
Pausas, J.C.,Llovet, J., Rodrigo, A.andVallejo, R.AreWildfires A Disaster In TheMediterraneanBasin? -A ReviewInternational Journal of Wildland Fire,Vol. 17Issue 6, p713-723, 11p.(2008).
Pausas, J. G.andFernández-Muñoz, S. Fire regime changes in the Western Mediterranean Basin: from fuel-limited to drought-driven fire regime.Climatic change, 110(1-2), 215-226 (2012).
Pereira, M.G.,Trigo, R.M., Da Camara,C.C., Pereira, J.M.C.andLeite, S.M.SynopticPatternsAssociatedWithLargeSummerForestFiresInPortugal. AgriculturalandForest24. Meteorology, Volume 129, Issues 1-2, Pages 11-25 (2005).
Rigolot, E.andAlexandrian, D. Learning FromFuel-Break BehaviourDuringThe 2003 LargeFiresInSouth EasternFrance. ForestEcologyandManagement, Vol 234,p 227(2006).
San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Moreno, J. M., and Camia, A. Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: lessons learned and perspectives. Forest Ecology and Management,294, 11-22 (2013).
Silva, J.,S., Vaz, P., Moreira, F., Catry, F.andRego, F.C.WildfiresAs AMajor Driver Of Landscape Dynamics In Three Fire-ProneAreas Of Portugal. Landscapeand Urban Planning, 101: 349–358 (2011)
Silva, G., L.andDias, M.I. ModellingAndAnalysis Of Forest Fire Data InPortugal-Part II (Report). NotasE Comunicações18/12, Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da Universidade de Lisboa(2013)
Spedicato G. A.andSignorelli M.TheMarkovChainPackage: A PackageForEasily Handling DiscreteMarkovChainsInR, SubmittedToTheJournal of Statistical Software(2014).
Stocks, B., Mason, J.A., Todd, J.B., Bosch, E.M., Wotton, B.M., Amiro, B.D., Flannigan, M.D., Hirsch, K.G., Logan, K.A., Martell, D.L.andSkinner, W.R.LargeForestFiresInCanada, 1959–1997.Journal of GeophysicalResearch, Vol. 108. No. D1, 8149, doi:10.1029/2001JD000484.(2002).
Tedim, F., Remelgado, R., Martins, J.andCarvalho, S. The Largest Forest Fires in Portugal: The constraints of burned area size of the comprehension of fire severity, Journal of Environmental Biology, 36(Special issue), 133-143(2015).
Varol, T.andErtugrul, M. The Impact of the Changing Climate on Fire Activity in Muğla Region.Polish Journal of Environmental Studies,24(3) (2015).
Vayda, A. P. Finding causes of the 1997-98 Indonesian forest fires: problems and possibilities. WWF Indonesia (1999).
Vélez, R. Causes of forest fires in the Mediterranean Basin. In Risk management and sustainable forestry. EFI Proceedings (Vol. 42, pp. 35-42), (2002).
Viegas, D. X.andCaballero, D. The accident of Guadalajara2005. Recent Forest Fire Related Accidents in Europe, 3-17, (2009).
Yücemen S. andAkkaya A. A comparative study of stochastic models for seismic hazard estimation. In: El-Sabh MI, Venkatesh S, Denis H, Murty TS, editors. Land-Based and Marine Hazards: Scientific and Management Issues, Series on Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research. pp. 5–24, (1995).
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R.andSwetnam, T. W. Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfireactivityscience,313(5789), 940-943 (2006).
Westerling, A. L.. Climate and Wildfire in the Western United States, California Applications Program White Paper, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. (2008).
Williams, R.J.,Wahren, C.H., Tolsma, A.D., Sanecki, G.M., Papst, W.A., Myers, B.A., McDougall, K.L., Heinze, D.A.andGren, K.LargeFiresInAustralianAlpineLandscapes: TheirPartInTheHistorical Fire RegimeAndTheirImpacts On AlpineBiodiversity. International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 17Issue 6, p793-808, 16p.(2008).
Xanthopoulos, G. Examining the causes of large forest fires in Mediterranean countries. Inproceedings of the international workshop on “Assessment of Forest Fire Risks and Innovative Strategies for Fire Prevention (pp. 4-6) (2010).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2016 gnpublication@
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
In consideration of the journal, Green Publication taking action in reviewing and editing our manuscript, the authors undersigned hereby transfer, assign, or otherwise convey all copyright ownership to the Editorial Office of the Green Publication in the event that such work is published in the journal. Such conveyance covers any product that may derive from the published journal, whether print or electronic. Green Publication shall have the right to register copyright to the Article in its name as claimant, whether separately
or as part of the journal issue or other medium in which the Article is included.
By signing this Agreement, the author(s), and in the case of a Work Made For Hire, the employer, jointly and severally represent and warrant that the Article is original with the author(s) and does not infringe any copyright or violate any other right of any third parties, and that the Article has not been published elsewhere, and is not being considered for publication elsewhere in any form, except as provided herein. Each author’s signature should appear below. The signing author(s) (and, in
