A Multivariate Analysis Approach in Determining Potential Hotspots of Seasonal Rainfall Change Over Uganda
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53555/ms.v2i12.230Keywords:
Hotspots,, rainfall, season, change, multivariateAbstract
Evidence of climate change continues to emerge in Uganda as indicated by recent floods in Teso sub-region and Kasese district, landslides in Bududa and long droughts experienced in Karamoja. The major objective of the study was to identify potential hotspots of rainfall change in Uganda during March-May and October-December seasons. Monthly rainfall data for the period extending from 1951 to 2010 were used in the study. Geospatial Climate analysis (GeoCLIM) tool was used to determine geographical areas that have experienced changes in seasonal rainfall over the decades 1981-2010 relative to the long-term mean (1951-2010). Mbale, Mbarara and Moroto were identified as areas of potential rainfall change. The historical rainfall series for the identified areas were tested for inhomogeneities using Standard Normal Homogeneity and Pettitt tests and found to be homogenous. Multivariate two-sample Hotelling T 2 -test was used to provide evidence of rainfall change in the identified areas by comparing mean seasonal rainfall vectors between the sub-periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. Results indicated a significant simultaneous decrease in mean rainfall over Moroto and Mbarara areas across the March-May season with April having the highest decrease (11 mm and 18 mm respectively). Mean rainfall in Mbale was found to have increased simultaneously across both wet seasons with April and October experiencing the greatest increase (10 mm apiece). Therefore hotspots of rainfall decrease were evident in Moroto (Karamoja) and Mbarara (Southwestern) whereas hotspots of rainfall increase were prominent in Mbale (Mt Elgon). There is need to account for disparity in rainfall patterns over Uganda by distinguishing between hotspots of unimodal and bimodal rainfall regimes.
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