• Nafiu Lukman Abiodun Kabale University, Kabale, Uganda
  • Maiga Issaka Hamadi Pan African University / Jomo Kenyata University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya



manufacture exports, trade policy, vector autoregressive(VAR), Granger Co-integration test


This study examines the impact of trade policy and performance of export manufacturing industries. It adopts time series data on a number of policy variables to determine their impacts on the manufacture exports as well as their significance or otherwise in stimulating export. The objectives are to (a) identify the major determinants of manufacture exports; and (b) determine the causal relationship existing between manufacture exports and trade policy - Openness, exchange rate, average tariff rates and capacity utilization. Empirical analysis of the data from 1970 to 2014 using Vector autoregressive (VAR) model and granger co-integration test have produced interesting results. Specifically, all the results have ultimately confirmed that there is, indeed a significant relationship among manufacture exports, trade openness, exchange rate, average tariff rates and capacity utilization. It is recommended that there should be urgent need to diversify the economy away from single commodity oil; given the uncertainties in the world oil market, adopt policies that ensure greater market access for the country’s manufacture exports as well as boosting their competitiveness at the international market. These are achieved through the adoption of trade and exchange rate liberalization policies that are devoid of control and regulations and lastly, policy option to moderate import liberalization in order to reap the benefit of a positively related and significant exchange rate variable with manufacture exports within the framework of market determined exchange rate.


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